Hormuz brings new ECONOMIC CRISIS? - CIA reports leaked, Saudi-UAE backs up

 The Middle East Power is shifting, as the war continues to function many significant developments have taken place. 

SAUDI - UAE's DENIAL

When Operation Freedom started, U.A.E and Saudi clearly refused America for using their bases and airspace for Operation Freedom.  

Iran had initially warned for military escalation to neighboring countries, specifically to U.A.E & Saudi, if they allow U.S. to uses their bases. 

The way Iran has hit in last 39-40 days, the occupancy of hotels in Dubai which used to be 100% has come down to 10%. In the second hit, the space got closed several times. Leaving no choice for them except unaccommodating with America.

This surges Iran's power and the limits of coalition support. 

OPERATION FREEDOM PAUSED?

The U.S. blockade in the Sea of Oman does not seem to be effective, whereas Iran is continuously expanding its reach beyond the Street of Hormuz. 

A living example of this is that on Monday, it fired a missile at Fujairah Port in U.A.E and the operation freedom which had just implemented was also ended, resulting the retreat of America. 

At the initial of Operation Freedom, U.S. claimed to remove the ships from Iran blockade, considering it their 'responsibility'.  Iran fired a missile amid the attempt of helping a South Korean ship pass through, subsequently the American navy setback. Giving rise to the event next day that America is currently pausing Operation Freedom.

The pause has triggered questions over whether the U.S. can sustain maritime pressure without military backing. 

CIA's WARNING

Recently, a secret CIA reports was leaked. The reports revealed that Iran can sustain the ongoing blockade for about 4 to 5 months. 

Meaning, if this blockade continues ahead, for which Iran is fully prepared and the CIA reports are the original truth, then it is obviously invite second period of economic crisis; petrol and diesel prices will become costlier by 40% to 50% across the world and a shortage shall be seen. 

The reports also mentioned that Iran's missile facilities are producing missiles at a faster pace & warning that prolonged disruption around Hormuz could trigger a major global energy shock, with oil prices potentially surging by nearly 50 percent- impacting Europe and Asia. 

MOJTOBA KHEMENEI's LEADERSHIP 

Since the beginning of the Middle East Conflict, Israel & America continue to criticize Iran's leadership and term it 'undivided' and 'with no leader to communicate with'. 

Proving this a counter idea, many significant development took place. The President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian recently made a statement, claiming that he has met the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. 

Later, Pezeshkian held a press conference affirming that his meeting with the supreme leader, lasted about two and a half hour, where important discussions took place focusing on Iran's commitment of building the sovereignty of the country and the further preparation. 

It is also understood that Mojtaba Khamenei, has not yet made any public appearances. His written statement are broadcast through the IRGC. 

In his latest written statement, he himself declared that Iran has right over the Strait of Hormuz & Uranium enrichment, and will persist under any circumstance. Adding, that Iran will control it and collect toll under the international law. 

This highlights that Iran is convincing that Mojtaba Khamenei is in action and that Iranian leadership structure remains operational. 

IRAN DENIES AXIOS DEAL

Axio, an Israeli channel, claimed that discussions have taken place on the 14-points agreement and the deal will be announced in the next 48 hours. 

On this, the Senior IRGC advisor, Mohsen Rezaei commented that the Hormuz will remain closed unless the U.S. pays "reparation" and dismissed the deal terming it 'unrealistic', formally rejecting Washington's deal proposal. 

He added that Iran does not demand mere concessions but real benefits in any agreements and will continue its opposition. 

Iran's positions remains identical - uncompromising and determined for their nation. 

Iran initially has been focusing from day one that they did not start this war. Before the war, the Hormuz was open. America achieved nothing after the war, except the closure of the Hormuz. which was open to everyone is now closed. Meaning, if there is an economic crisis in the world today then it is not entirely because of Iran but by the intervention of U.S.    

WHAT IT MEANS?

NO U.S. BLOCKADE: As of now the U.S. blockade in the sea of Oman has been terminated

ZERO COMPROMISE: In guidance of the supreme leader, it is sure that Iran is relentless to surrender. 

TRIGGERED ECONOMIC RISK: The CIA reports, if true, and the denial in agreement lasts, then in will surly bring economic emergency worldwide. 

CONCLUSION

The Middle East Conflict is at the stage of restrategizing as the U.S.'s efforts to conquer the Gulf with it partner fails.  

As time passes by and event occurs, it gradually shapes Iran to be the new superpower, UAE & Saudi stepping back after Iran's threat, add on intensify their strength. 

According to war analysts explain, it is learnt that Iran foremost wants the opposition to end the war and then shall the second round of talks on nuclear take place but only at the cost in which the onus of showing trust is on America. 

This is because previously when discussions were taking place U.S. attacked leading to the death of the former supreme leader. This is the reason why Iran is not ready to give even a tiniest space of trust to America. 

It is clear that Iran will make the agreement on its own terms. It had laid down three conditions:

1. If a deal is to be reached, then the war will have to be completely ended first. 
2. The assets of Iran which have been frozen and sanctions have imposed, should be defrozen. 
3. All the allies of Iran, whether it is Hezbollah or Houthis or Israel's genocide that is going on in Gaza, in Palestine, should also be suspended immediately.

There are possibilities that Iran come to a level and move forward in making an agreement, only if it gains full confidence and trust of Iran. Else the NO-COMPROMISE way remains....