FINGER ON TRIGGERS: U.S. - Iran standoff at final phase, as Hormuz is re-closed

The increasing violations have resulted second closure in Strait of Hormuz with the ceasefire is at the verge of ending within 3 days. 

The ship-tracking data showed multiple vessels returning from the Strait except those that followed the routes designated by Iran.

Iran has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. SEIZURE PLAN:

As per the report published by the Wall Street Journal,  the U.S. considering to plan a major escalation, intending to eliminate Iranian soldiers and sailors & take over Iran's oil. 

U.S. military officials are preparing to board and seize Iranian-linked oil tankers and commercial ships operating in international waters in the coming days allowing their naval operation to now expand beyond the Middle East. .  

This report if true and implemented by America would directly target Iran risking unpredictable future of the Middle East conflict. 

IRAN'S TOTAL CONTROL ON HORMUZ

IRGC conducted a radio broadcast for all ship waiting for re-open of Strait of Hormuz, regarding the failure of the U.S. government to fulfill its commitment in negotiations. 

They declared the Strait of Hormuz as completely closed with no vessels of any type or nationality allowed to pass through the Strait.

According to the sources, Iran had attacked several commercial ships on Saturday tightly controlling the routes. The incident created panic among shipping companies.

The rising military warnings and condemn highlight enemy's breach of faith in Iran.

TRUMP's REACTION

U.S. President Donald Trump held a meeting in the White House Situation Room to discuss the tensions of Strait of Hormuz and negotiations with Iran. 

He informed the situation in Iran has reached a critical point and the ceasefire is due to end in three days and a new date for negotiations between the U.S. and Iran has not yet been set. 

"If there is no breakthrough soon, hostiles could resume in the coming days" said a U.S. official. 

This ultimatum accelerates the risk of war in the future and decline in diplomacy. 

THE NUCLEAR CONFLICT

Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, correlated Iran's enriched uranium as sacred as the country's soil and interpreted that uranium won't be transferred under any circumstance. 

Iran's parliamentary speaker, Ghalibaf, informed that Iran responded strongly to U.S.' attempt to remove landmines and consider it a violation of ceasefire. Later, the U.S. backed down after Iran's threat. 

He considered the U.S. decision 'careless' and 'ignorant' made in short term and warned that the if more violation continued the Hormuz will be more restricted.

The unexpected turn in Iran's dialogue indicates their hostility after violations in negotiations and ceasefire, which may risk further escalation.

IRAN - U.S. DEAL SUSPENDED?

The U.S.- Iran deal held in Islamabad came to pause with due results. The negotiation postponed & came to end only with certain discussion:-

• IRAN'S TERMS: Iran has clarified that further discussion will take place only when                       America reduces it excessive demands and accept ground reality. 

•  U.S.'s NEW PROPOSAL: U.S. is considering the Iran Operations proposal presented                     during the visit of Pakistan's Army Chief to Tehran- including handing over of enriched                 uranium to America. 

•  IRAN'S STRICTNESS: Iran's negotiators stated boldly they won't back down and will                   not give any concession, even the smallest one. 

•  MATTER OF HORMUZ: As per Iranian officials, opening of Hormuz with conditions                   was part of an effort to prevent attacks on Lebanon. This was done in accordance with                   Iranian regulations and was paid for in exchange for maritime safety and environmental                 protection. 

•  ACCUSATION ON U.S.: Iran accused the U.S.'s blockade is the violation of current                     ceasefire.

• IRAN'S WARNING: Iran threatened to re-block Hormuz if the U.S. continued to                           violate it & consequently the Hormuz is now terminated. 

After the recent developments Iran has finalized to prevent any deal with the U.S. for now. 

WHY THIS MATTERS?

Full force of IRGC  and complete closure in the Hormuz will lead to:

• Scarcity in oil and energy infrastructure
• Disrupted global commercial trade
• Hike in oil prices

WHAT NEXT?

GLOBAL INSTABILITY: Complete closure of the Hormuz will cause a second period of lack in global oil supply chain.

TRIGGERED WAR: With rising hostility in both parties, any military action or violation will trigger redemption in war.

DRAGGING MORE POWER: If Pakistan is not successful in breaking the deal, it will risk involving high powers like China & Russia. 

CONCLUSION

As U.S. violates, the Strait of Hormuz is suspended with Iran turned more assertive. 

The radio signals and officials considering U.S. terms unnecessary reflects the consequences of the deceptive commitments made to Iran.

Hormuz laid with mines, ships only following IRGC designated routes survived. 

Iran boldly states the prevention of any further negotiations.

With both parties threatening, the fingers are on trigger with the future of the conflict more unpredictable. Till now, negotiations have reached no place of success & Iran boldly stating prevention of any talks, the chances surge to involve high power like China & Russia.

America's plan to attack and Iran's strong military, the final pause before escalation, make situation more perilous.